Dr Luke Kemp, a researcher at the University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, has issued a stark warning about the potential collapse of global civilisation by the year 2050. His work, which examines the downfall of historical empires and civilisations, identifies a recurring pattern he terms “self-termination”.
According to Kemp, this collapse is often driven by a powerful elite extracting excessive resources from both the population and the environment. This exploitation leads to widespread inequality, corruption, internal conflict, and a breakdown in public health and governance. As decision-making becomes concentrated in a disconnected oligarchy, society becomes fragile and vulnerable to external shocks.
One such potential shock, Kemp argues, could be an extreme solar storm. He references the 1859 Carrington Event, which disrupted telegraph systems with massive electromagnetic flares. If a similar solar storm struck today, it could destroy power grids, disable satellites, and collapse global communications. Given how dependent modern society is on electricity and digital infrastructure, such an event could trigger a worldwide blackout, halting everything from banking and internet access to food transport and refrigeration. The probability of a solar storm of this magnitude occurring by 2050 is estimated at 50%.
Kemp also highlights a worrying lack of public awareness and political discourse around existential threats. For instance, he notes that nuclear policy—despite its potentially apocalyptic consequences—is rarely a decisive issue in major elections, such as those in the United States. This disconnect between real-world dangers and political priorities, he suggests, is indicative of societal fragility.
While most of the population remains unaware or indifferent, the ultra-wealthy are already preparing for the worst. A growing industry of luxury bunkers is emerging, offering underground sanctuaries complete with swimming pools, wine cellars, artificial gardens and hydroponic farms. Some even come with private security forces made up of former special operations personnel. These fortified shelters reflect a future where inequality is not only preserved but entrenched beneath the earth’s surface.
Kemp’s research serves as a sobering reminder that without urgent action and collective awareness, the collapse of civilisation may no longer be a distant dystopian theory, but a rapidly approaching reality.
